WHAT ARE THE ODDS
The world has a population of about 6 billion. While there are thousands of religions, we can select a few that provide a respectable sample of these people.
Christianity accounts for 33% (about 2 billion), Islam has 19.6% (1.2 billion), Hindu comprises 13.4% (811 million) and Judaism 0.2% (14 million). Taken together they represent 66.2% or about 4 billion religious people and this should provide a large enough group to yield reasonable conclusions.
It is common for religions to make rather extravagant claims for itself. Each declares it represents fundamental and absolute truth, presents supernatural entities responsible for our existence, defines good and evil, and provides rituals and ceremonies to propitiate the supernatural entities. Most notably, religions offer extreme punishment/reward incentives for its followers, usually coming due at death. The incentives are intended to control human behavior, especially behavior contrary to or benefiting the religion’s interests. There is almost universal agreement between these 4 billion religious people upon these principles:
(1) No two religions have a compatible set of ultimate truths. That is, taking any pair of belief systems, at least one of them must be false.
(2) Examining the principles of a religion to which one does not belong leads to the conclusion that it has absurd foundations, false claims, and no validity.
(3) An individual examining their own religion observes only truth and obvious validity.
You have to pause and reflect on this if you believe it is so. A truly objective response to this data is that, considering thousands of religions have been left out, the most plausible explanation is that all religions are false or delusional. Even if you make the unwarranted assumption that one of these belief systems is true, regardless of which one it is, the odds are against you having been fortunate to have been born into that particular culture.
A rational approach to solving this problem is to actually study these religions and make an informed selection. Clearly if one is true it will stand out among the fraudulent members. It is unlikely that this has ever happened for two reasons.
1. It will only work if the student has not been exposed to prior indoctrination since faith renders the subject unable to accept or understand data which is in conflict with his or her current “divine” truth. (See THE POWER OF FAITH for some amplification of this idea.)
2. In the rare cases which the individual has reached the age of reason without any religious indoctrination, studying the various world religions fails to show any significant differences in plausibility or rationality, rendering a choice arbitrary at best, and not worthy of adoption.